Gold seen rising above US$1,300/oz

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Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Gold will push through the US$1,300/oz mark, supported by political uncertainty and a weaker US dollar, according to analysts.

The yellow metal hit a five-month high of US$1,284.15/oz on April 13 in London, propelled by safe-haven demand amid tensions between the US and North Korea, and following a US missile strike in Syria, which angered Russia.

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These factors are likely to help push gold higher, according to Saxo Group's Ole Hansen, with US$1,325/oz forecast for end-2017.

"The risk of a stronger dollar and successive US rate hikes are fading while plenty of geopolitical risks and light investor positioning is likely to support demand," he added.

SHORT-TERM RISE?

In addition to global tensions, a lack of direction in US stock markets and weaker-than-expected jobs data in the country, gold will be supported by the absence of information on US fiscal and spending plans with congress in recess, ICBC Standard Bank's Tom Kendall said.

Further falls in US bond yields could also help push gold to the US$1,325-1,330/oz range within the next three weeks, he added.

However, gold is unlikely to settle above US$1,300/oz for a sustained period, TD Securities said in a note.

Pressure is likely from a robust stock market, the lack of geopolitical crisis and Federal Reserve tightening, the company said.

CPM Group expects gold's rally to accelerate in H2, with ABN AMRO and BMO Capital Markets forecasting range-bound or lower prices in 2017.

Gold closed US$5.20 lower at US$1,278.95/oz, despite the US dollar weakening by half a cent to around 93.5 euro cents, with silver 14 cents lower at US$18.42/oz.